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Best of the West: Predicting the 2018 National League West standings

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The 2018 Major League Baseball season is upon us.  The sun has risen on the Arizona desert and Florida coast and cities.  Soon, your favorite baseball players will ascend on their home stadiums.  

 

With the above in mind, what will the standings look like by the beginning of October 2018? Of the five teams in the division, three made the playoffs in 2017 (the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Colorado Rockies and the Los Angeles Dodgers). The Diamondbacks beat the Rockies in a one-game playoff. The Dodgers swept the Diamondbacks in three games. The Dodgers proceeded to the World Series for the first time since 1988 and lost to the Houston Astros in seven games. 

Can the baseball world expect anything different in 2018? Let us start with the two teams who did not see playoff action in 2017 and work our way towards the top of the West Division. 

  1. San Diego Padres

The Padres’ biggest addition this offseason was first baseman Eric Hosmer. Hosmer will push Wil Myers to the outfield and begin a formidable core of power hitters with Hunter Renfroe. No significant additions to the pitching staff were made. In a game about scoring runs, this means the Padres may save a few runs with Hosmer’s multiple Gold Glove awards and score a few more runs with his Silver Slugger award in tow. Meaning, the Padres will fight for fourth or fifth place in the West, but have an extreme amount of talent in their farm system with MacKenzie Gore. LHP, Cal Quantrill; RHP, Luis Urias; SS/2B, Fernando Tatis Jr.; SS, and Anderson Espinoza, RHP, ready to move up soon. 

  1. San Francisco Giants

In contrast to the Padres, the Giants have given away a significant amount of prospects in exchange for Major League-ready talent. Specifically, the Giants landed outfielder Andrew McCutchen and third baseman Evan Longoria. The Giants also signed free agent left-handed reliever Tony Watson, who was with the Dodgers in 2017. The Giants’ lone remaining top prospect is first baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw. With some health, the Giants suffered a lot of injuries last year, they have a good core and could compete for the next two years with Longoria and McCutchen. However, age will be an issue on this year’s team. They will likely land in fourth or fifth place.

  1. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies return with the same team in 2018, replacing former closer Greg Holland with former Chicago Cubs closer Wade Davis. The Rockies have a solid core of offense and pitching, but like every other Rockies team in Coors Field, they will struggle to keep the ball in the park and/or in an outfielder’s glove. The Rockies will fight for second or third place in the division, possibly overtaking the Diamondbacks. 

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks lost J.D. Martinez to free agency and that is a huge offensive loss. The team added Japanese reliever/closer Yoshihisa Hirano; outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Steven Souza, Jr., and catcher Alex Avila. The Diamondbacks will have one of the deepest benches in the West and they return all of their major pitching contributors, healthy, plus a healthy star-outfielder in A.J. Pollock. The Diamondbacks and the Rockies are the biggest threats to challenge the Dodgers, however, the Diamondbacks lack of farm depth may come back to hurt them as the season plays on into the long days of summer. 

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers 

The Dodgers have one of the the highest payrolls in baseball, but also one of the best farm systems, deepest benches, pitching staffs, outfield depth and experience in the recent playoffs, having claimed five straight division titles. Subject to some major injuries and player losses, the Dodgers will repeat as National League West and League Champions and should challenge one of the top American League teams for the World Series title. Consider this: the Dodgers sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth starting pitchers include Ross Stripling, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias (when he returns), Brock Stewart and Wilmer Font. Their outfielder bench consists of Joc Pederson with Matt Kemp, likely starting in left field. The core of Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Austin Barnes/Yasmani Grandal and Chris Taylor, are All-Star-caliber players young, or in their prime. The 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches and will look to repeat as National West Champions in 2018. 

No collusion confusion: Three reasons why MLB did NOT collude this offseason

From Judge and former Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis to Curt Flood, organized baseball has a storied history as well as a complicated one when it comes to player rights and team control. Baseball players have gone from Elysian Fields to Sandlots to beautifully constructed ballparks as a place to practice and perfect their craft. In the past, the clubs essentially controlled baseball players indefinitely, while Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes secured organized baseball’s antitrust exemption and Curt Flood along with Marvin Miller challenged the status quo. (Federal Base Ball Club of Baltimore, Inc. v. National League of Professional Base Ball Clubs et al., 259 U.S. 200 (1922); Flood v. Kuhn, 407 U.S. 258 (1972).

 

In February 2018, the Major League Baseball Players Association filed a grievance against the Miami Marlins, Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays alleging these specific franchises had not used their revenue-sharing money to advance team salary through the purchase of available free agent contracts during the offseason. While the facts of that matter are yet to be argued and decided, one thing is certain; Major League Baseball did not collude this offseason in neglecting to sign available free agents. Here are the three reasons why.

  1. Market Analytics 

Made popular by Moneyball via author Michael Lewis, Athletic’s front office executive Billy Beane and actor Brad Pitt, baseball teams have invested heavily into front office talent with mathematics and economics degrees. Major League clubs got smart by looking to analytics to determine a player’s performance and potential by looking at different statistics in an effort to draft, control and trade for young, inexpensive talent. In a reach to the past, teams have realized that to survive season after season, they must have deep farm systems as a foundation. Money does not buy everything and never has, especially in baseball.

  1. Luxury Tax Changes with the New CBA

Per Maury Brown with Forbes.com:

Luxury Tax offenders and the draft: Beginning in 2018, clubs with a payroll $40 million or more above the Tax Threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places, except that the top six selections will be protected and those Clubs will have their 2nd highest selection moved back 10 places.”

With the above in mind, nothing motivates a club more to keep its salary under a certain point than being taxed at a higher rate and losing your place in one type of draft or another.

  1. 2019 Free Agent Class

Knowing that a club would want additional resources to pay for its developing players in its own farm system as they approach free agency and that the club would be subject to higher tax penalties for multiple years of non-compliance playing above the threshold, it makes sense clubs would reserve resources for the 2019 free agent class that includes Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson, among many more.

The market generally drives the cost of talent, not collusion.