After reaching their seventh consecutive ALCS in 2023, where they fell to the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers, the Astros were gearing up as World Series favorites. However, their season has been anything but smooth sailing. Despite high expectations, significant offseason changes and a series of unfortunate injuries have left the team struggling, particularly in their pitching department.
Major Offseason Losses
In the offseason, the team went through multiple changes, including both players and their coach. Dusty Baker, who coached Houston from 2020-2023 and won the World Series in 2022, announced his retirement in October last year. The Astros already had a replacement in mind, hiring bench Joe Espada less than a month later. Espada has been with the team since 2018.
The rest of the offseason was slower compared to other teams. They lost five impactful players (three pitchers, an outfielder, and a catcher) to free agency. Relief pitchers Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, and Hector Neris each had over 50 appearances last year. Neris’ 71 games were second on the team among all pitchers. Michael Brantley, an everyday outfielder since 2019, hit .278 in 54 at-bats over 15 games last season. Lastly, Martin Maldonado was the team’s primary catcher since 2020. He was originally an Astro in 2018, arriving for a second stint from 2019-23.
How Will the Astros Respond?
The Astros’ first offseason move came in the form of a trade with the Royals for RHP Dylan Coleman. The following day, free-agent catcher Victor Caratini inked a two-year contract. Jan. 16, 2024, delivered a blow to Houston as right-handed pitcher Kendall Graveman (shoulder) was set to miss the entire 2024 season. Graveman was acquired at the 2023 trade deadline, pitching 22.1 innings with a 2.42 ERA. With Graveman’s absence adding to the bullpen losses from 2023, the Astros responded with their most significant move of the offseason just six days later.
Photo Cred: K.C. Alfred/San Diego Union-Tribune (Hader)
On January 22nd, the team announced the signing of All-Star relief pitcher/closer Josh Hader to a five-year deal worth $95 million. This made him the second-highest-paid reliever in baseball, behind the Mets’ Edwin Diaz. Hader was coming off an outstanding season with the Padres, making 61 appearances and collecting 33 saves. He finished the season with a 1.28 ERA and 85 strikeouts in just 56.1 innings.
The last notable move the Astros made before Spring Training was the signing that the fans had been anticipating. They penned long-time second baseman Jose Altuve to a five-year, $125 million extension. This contract keeps him with the Astros until 2029, when he will be 40 years old. While this move was expected, it brought joy not only to the front office but also to the entire fan base. Altuve, who made his rookie debut with the team in 2011, has been a fixture with the team for 14 years and is an eight-time All-Star. He has effectively served as the face of the franchise in recent years.
A Less-Than-Ideal Pitching Situation
The team entered the season with significant injury concerns, particularly on the pitching side. Houston faced the season without arms like Justin Verlander, José Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis García. Additionally, relief pitcher Bryan Abreu was unavailable to start the season due to a suspension stemming from last year. Most of their starting rotation consisted of players with minimal major league pitching experience. This lack of experience quickly became evident. Framber Valdez earned his third consecutive Opening Day start regardless.
The problems began when the Astros were swept at home in four games by the Yankees. Their pitching staff surrendered at least four runs in every game. Along with Valdez, who only conceded three runs in 4.2 innings, the starting pitchers appeared relatively solid. However, the main issue lay with the bullpen, and this trend persisted into the early part of the season.
Photo Cred: Houston Chronicle (L- McCullers Jr., R- Garcia)
Their first win came in their first road game when Ronel Blanco threw a no-hitter in his season debut. The 30-year-old Blanco had previously made only seven starts in the majors. The Houston offense scored 10 runs, their highest total of the season at that point. While fans hoped this would be a turning point, it was not. By April 25, they were 7-19 and in last place in the AL West.
While the offense struggled to produce runs, it was the pitching that was killing them. In the first 26 games, Houston allowed over five runs per game. Hader and Ryan Pressly, expected to be bullpen anchors, had ERAs of 8.38 and 7.45, respectively. The team’s combined ERA in April was 5.10, placing them third to last in the league. Coleman, the team’s first offseason acquisition, has made only one appearance. He has been optioned to the minors for most of the season.
The Star of the Season: Ronel Blanco
That is not to say there weren’t any bright spots, though. After the no-hitter in his first outing, Blanco continued his impressive performance. He quickly emerged as the best pitcher on the roster, boasting a 2.09 ERA and a 4-0 record through his first 47.1 innings. However, his momentum came to a sudden halt on May 14 against the A’s. During a routine substance check on his glove after the third inning, umpires claimed to have felt something sticky inside. Blanco was promptly ejected, resulting in a 10-game suspension.
Photo Cred: CBS Sports
Erich Bacchus, one of the umpires from the game, remarked, “it was the stickiest stuff I’ve felt on a glove since we’ve been doing this for a few years now.” Blanco, speaking through his interpreter, countered it was, “just probably rosin I put on my left arm. Maybe because of the sweat it got into the glove and that’s maybe what they found.” Regardless, Blanco had to serve his suspension, dealing a blow to the already struggling pitching staff. Upon returning, he hasn’t been able to maintain his earlier intensity, going 1-2 in 17.1 innings, with his ERA climbing to 2.78.
The Offense Has Also Not Been at Its Best
Another significant disappointment has been first baseman Jose Abreu. The 2020 AL MVP started out the 2024 season as the worst-qualified hitter in baseball… In his first 22 games, he managed just a .099 batting average over 77 ABs. As a result, he was sent to the minors on April 30 to work on his swing, the first time in his professional career that he played in the minor leagues. Prior to joining the White Sox in 2014, he spent 2010-13 playing professionally in Cuba and had always been in the majors since his defection.
Photo Cred: CBS Sports (Abreu)
His spot was filled by veteran 1B Jon Singleton, who made a name for himself in Abreu’s absence. He slammed five home runs in his first 38 games, but none since then. While Abreu has since returned, he is only playing marginally better now. He has a .118 batting average with six RBIs, 12 hits, and two HRs. Alongside LF Chas McCormick, they are currently hitting around or below the Mendoza Line. 11 position players have WARs (wins above replacement) below 1.0, with two at 0.0 and four in the negatives. Houston hasn’t been able to hit for power much either, with only two batters hitting double-digit home runs so far.
There’s Still Room for Improvement
There was a glimmer of hope from May 9-17 as the Astros went 8-1, including a six-game winning streak. During that period, the pitching staff never surrendered five runs in a single game. However, following a pattern of alternating wins and losses, the Mariners secured three consecutive victories against them in Seattle. Starting May 30th, Houston has posted a 6-3 record, including two separate two-game winning streaks.
While the AL West division does not appear as formidable as it has in previous years, the Astros still face significant challenges. Only time will reveal if the team can return to the top of the division like they have been accustomed to doing. At the time of writing, Houston is sitting at 30-35 and occupies third place in the division.
Photo Cred: Forbes (L- Singleton, R- Alex Bregman)
Josh Hader still has not reached double-digit saves yet (nine), though Abreu has 13 holds. Blanco and Valdez are the only SPs with five wins, but two have five losses. Hunter Brown has 67 strikeouts, eight more than anyone else. RP Tayler Scott’s 1.76 ERA and RP Seth Martinez’s 1.02 WHIP are the best on the team (minimum 10 appearances). Three relievers and a starter all have managed a K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) of 10 or more.
Bad News Strikes the Team Again
It just seems like players have been dropping like flies lately… Outfielder Kyle Tucker landed on the injured list on Jun. 7 (retroactive to June 4th) with a shin contusion. Worse yet, two starters are now out for the season. Cristian Javier and Urquidy will both ultimately go through elbow surgery soon. In the minors, former major league starter J.P. France remains sidelined, attempting to recover from a shoulder injury.
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