The realm of collegiate athletics buzzes with speculation regarding the potential restructuring of two major conferences: the Pac-12 and the Mountain West. The Pac-12 is rich with history. Central to these discussions is the question of whether a reverse merger between the two conferences is imminent or if the Pac 2 will become the Pac-12 again and pursue a selective poaching strategy to fortify its ranks.
Three main scenarios emerge, each carrying its own implications.
Firstly, a unanimous decision by all 12 Mountain West schools to dissolve their conference and unite with Washington State and Oregon State in revitalizing the Pac-12 would mark a seismic shift in collegiate sports, consolidating talent, resources, and market presence. The Pas-12 branding would bring more prestige even though the Mountain West has it’s own traditions.
A super-majority vote within the Mountain West, with at least nine out of the 12 schools in favor, could lead to a partial dissolution of the conference, with the majority opting to join the Pac-12. This could result in a fragmented conference landscape, sparking realignment discussions. In this case the Mountain West would either merge with the AAC or take teams from there as the Mountain West has a bigger name.
The third scenario involves a selective poaching strategy by the Pac-12, where four to eight Mountain West schools express their intent to join by 2026. While this approach allows the Pac-12 to handpick desirable additions, it presents challenges such as departure fees for the exiting schools and penalties for the Pac-12. The Pac- 12 would also have to take teams from the AAC to get to at least 10 teams.
Leading candidates for departure from the Mountain West include institutions known for their competitive success or media value, such as San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State, and UNLV.
Critical to any restructuring effort is securing alignment among member commitments. While formal media rights agreements may not be immediate prerequisites, establishing a solid membership framework is crucial. Financial considerations loom large, with the Mountain West’s penalty structure adding complexity. Schools eyeing a move to the Pac-12 face substantial financial obligations, with departure fees ranging from $18 million to $35 million, depending on timing.
June 30, 2025, stands out as a pivotal deadline, unofficially marking a critical juncture for Washington State and Oregon State to finalize their decisions. This underscores the urgency and significance of the choices ahead, necessitating prompt action and strategic planning. As the collegiate sports landscape evolves, the potential for a reverse merger between the Pac-12 and the Mountain West continues to captivate attention. With various outcomes in sight, the future of both conferences relies on strategic planning, collaboration, and foresight as they navigate conference realignment toward a more robust and competitive future.
