With the NFL playoffs set to start today, it is helpful to analyze the teams by how far they are expected to go in the postseason tournament. While some teams are just happy to have qualified, others have their sights set on a championship. Only one team can win it all, but this Wild Card Weekend has storylines galore. It ranges from Matthew Stafford’s return to Detroit with the Rams to Tyreek Hill’s return to Kansas City with the Dolphins. We saw Joe Flacco leading the Browns to unlikely success, as well as the Houston Texans qualifying and winning their division with rookie quarterback sensation CJ Stroud. In the end, however, I believe that the four teams most likely to win the Super Bowl are: the Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens.
Tier 4: Happy to be Here- Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Houston Texans
First up, we have the Houston Texans. One year after finishing with the second and third overall picks, the Texans rode an excellent rookie season by CJ Stroud and defensive phenom Will Anderson Jr. It culminated with an AFC South championship and a home playoff game. Some other notable players on the Texans are wide receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins, as well as running back Devin Singletary. All of them had big seasons in leading the Texans back to the playoffs. The problem for Houston is that their opponent, the Browns, is no slouch.
Photo Cred: Eleven Warriors
Cleveland beat the Texans 36-22 on Christmas Eve inside NRG stadium, which shows that a loaded roster on both sides of the ball may be too much for the upstart Texans team. Even if they manage to win that game, they will likely be faced with tougher matchups on the road at top-seeded Baltimore or second-seeded Buffalo. Regardless, it is very impressive that Houston got to the playoffs during Stroud’s rookie season, and the future is once again bright for the Texans even if they get bounced in the first game of the postseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Next, we have the Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite an uneven regular season that saw them drop back-to-back games against the 2-10 Cardinals and Patriots, Pittsburgh bounced back to win their final three games and sneak into the postseason with a 10-7 record. After struggles from quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, the Steelers handed the reins over to Mason Rudolph. He delivered three solid performances to push the team to victories over the Bengals, Seahawks, and Ravens.
Photo Cred: Sports Illustrated
However, their playoff opponent, the Buffalo Bills, will be much tougher to beat. Especially more so because they are coming off a five-game winning streak of their own. The game between the Bills and Steelers is expected to be 24℉ at kickoff, with heavy winds and snow expected. This should favor the Bills, who are more used to such conditions, even though they did lose at home to the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round last season. This year’s Pittsburgh Steelers do not have the talent of the other AFC playoff teams, and they will also be without their star linebacker T.J. Watt for the contest against Buffalo. That loss will further hinder their chances of winning the game or making a run in the playoffs this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
To round out this tier, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South with a 9-8 record and will host the reeling Philadelphia Eagles on the Monday night game of Wild Card weekend. Baker Mayfield has continued his career resurgence, leading Tampa back to the playoffs against expectations. A team that features talented wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, they should not be counted out by any means. Running back Rachaad White has had a big year on the ground, and the Bucs have a top-ten scoring, rushing, and red-zone defense.
Photo Cred: Sports Illustrated
Although the Bucs have a solid chance to pull off the upset against Philadelphia, they still don’t realistically have a chance to make much of a playoff run. Tampa Bay finished tied with the worst record among playoff teams and capitalized by winning divisional games against the worst division in football. The Buccaneers could advance past the Eagles, but the rest of the playoffs will be an uphill battle, as higher seeds such as the 49ers or Cowboys await them in the next round.
Tier 3: Don’t Count Them Out- Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles Rams
Next up is a group of teams who are not expected to do much in the playoffs but could surprise and go on a deeper run than most fans would anticipate. To start, the Los Angeles Rams surged into the postseason on a four-game win streak. They are led by quarterback Matthew Stafford, who will be making a much-anticipated return to Detroit after spending many years of his career as a Lion. Rookie sensation receiver Puka Nacua finished the season with the rookie receiving record in total yards and catches.
Photo Cred: Sports Illustrated
He is paired with another star receiver in Cooper Kupp, who previously finished with the most catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns in the 2021 season (an NFL WR triple crown). In addition, running back Kyren Williams enjoyed a breakout rushing season, with over 1,100 yards on the ground. Eight-time All-Pro defensive end Aaron Donald bolsters the formidable defensive front. Although the team is not expected to challenge the upper echelon of NFC teams, they have played solid football as of late and are only three-point underdogs against the Lions. If Los Angeles can continue their style of football, they can be a tough out for even the best teams in the league.
Green Bay Packers
To continue this tier, we have the Green Bay Packers. Despite finishing with just a 9-8 record and the NFC’s #7 seed, the Packers enter the postseason on a three-game win streak and inspired play by quarterback Jordan Love. After regularly appearing in the postseason under Aaron Rodgers, Love has led the team to some impressive victories over the Lions, Chiefs, and Vikings.
Photo Cred: Fox News
Running back Aaron Jones has been key for Green Bay as well, rushing for over 100 yards in the Packers’ last three games. On defense, the Packers are led by All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander alongside Carrington Valentine. A tough matchup awaits against the #2 Dallas Cowboys, who are undefeated at home this season and feature an explosive offense as well as a great defense. The Packers may have found their magic as of late, but knocking off a very good Cowboys team at home will be a tough ask, as will advancing further in the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles
Concluding this tier, we have the Philadelphia Eagles, who have been in a freefall after starting with a 10-1 record. Since then, the Eagles have lost five out of their last six games, including losses to the lowly Cardinals and Giants, both of which have a top-six draft pick this season. The Birds have faced injuries as of late, with quarterback Jalen Hurts, star receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, and cornerback Darius Slay all having injuries either before or during the last Giants game. With Philadelphia trailing the Giants 24-0 at halftime, the Eagles decided to rest more of their starters in the second half to get ready for the playoff game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Photo Cred: The New York Times
The Eagles’ defense has been particularly concerning as of late, allowing 35 points to Arizona and 27 to the Giants, two of the worst offensive teams in the NFL. However, if the Eagles can get healthy, it is important not to forget that this team started with the top record in the league, still retains most of its Super Bowl team from last year, and has playoff experience. If there’s any team that can bounce back and make a surprise playoff run, don’t count out the Eagles. Their offense is still a top-five rushing team and the roster is littered with stars on both sides of the football.
Tier 2: Hoping to Make a Deep Run- Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns
Now we shift to teams who have a chance to make a deep run into the playoffs. The biggest surprise out of this bunch may very well be the Cleveland Browns. After starting quarterback Deshaun Watson got injured, the Browns played Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker. Later, they signed Joe Flacco, the former Super Bowl champion with the Ravens. Flacco has more than impressed, as the 38-year-old quarterback has lit up opposing defenses to lead a surging Browns team into Wild Card weekend. Wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku are the team’s biggest offensive weapons, while Myles Garrett remains one of the league’s best defensive ends. While a matchup with the Texans looks favorable, Cleveland will have to battle the AFC’s elite in future rounds. Clashes against the Bills and Ravens look likely if the Browns want to advance to their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.
Photo Cred: Sports Illustrated
Kansas City Chiefs
The reigning Super Bowl champions, Kansas City Chiefs, are gearing up for another playoff run. With that being said, this year’s team has struggled a lot more than in recent years. Even then, the Chiefs finished 11-6 with the AFC’s third seed and will host the Miami Dolphins. The game is expected to have negative 30-degree wind chills and negative temperatures on Saturday night. The cold is expected to work in their favor, especially against the Miami-based Dolphins, but could have an impact on Kansas City as well. The Chiefs have struggled with drops, as many of their receivers (including Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Kadarius Toney) have dropped many accurately-placed footballs that cost them some games.
Photo Cred: Los Angeles Times
Even star tight end Travis Kelce has had his share of drops! Toney’s foot being offside cost the Chiefs a pivotal game against the Bills that may end up sending KC to Buffalo for the divisional round next weekend instead of the other way around. This is because the Bills won the head-to-head matchup and both teams finished with the same record. Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense has looked even better than in years past, led by star pass-rusher Chris Jones and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. On offense, rookie receiver Rashee Rice has impressed, and former Rutgers running back Isiah Pacheco has dominated on the ground, complemented nicely by Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Although the Chiefs will have to hit the road to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in the Mahomes era, the defending Super Bowl champions will not go down without a fight. Even though this has been a down year by their standards.
Miami Dolphins
The Chiefs’ Wild Card opponent, the Miami Dolphins, is no slouch either. Despite a late-season fall-off with losses to the Titans, Ravens, and Bills, Miami finished with an identical 11-6 record to the Chiefs and has had a lot of firepower this season. From quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, the Dolphins offense is the most explosive in the league when it is firing on all cylinders. On defense, Miami has the tenth-ranked defense, allowing 318.3 yards per game.
Photo Cred: Gridiron Heroics
Since they are missing some of their best pass-rushers, the Dolphins will need their secondary to step up, including Jalen Ramsey at the cornerback position. A matchup in the freezing-cold GEHA Field at Kansas City certainly does the warm-weather Dolphins no favors. If the Fins can find their early-season form, they may be equipped to make a playoff run this postseason despite having to travel to more cold-weather sites in the weeks to come.
Detroit Lions
Shifting to the NFC, the Detroit Lions are the final team in this category. After barely missing out on the playoffs last year with a 9-8 record, head coach Dan Campbell led a ferocious Lions team to a 12-5 record and the NFC’s #3 seed this year. This sets the stage for Detroit’s first home playoff game since 1994. Longtime Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford makes his return to Detroit, where he will face off against former Rams quarterback and current Lions signal-caller Jared Goff. The two quarterbacks were traded for each other in a blockbuster deal during the 2021 season. The Lions offense also features star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the electric running backs Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery, and tight end Sam LaPorta.
Photo Cred: Pride of Detroit
Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson leads the way with 10.5 sacks on the season. The long-struggling Lions have waited for a moment like this for years. They were robbed of a potential victory in Dallas due to head referee Brad Allen incorrectly ruling that offensive lineman Taylor Decker did not report as an eligible receiver. There was enough video evidence that showed that Decker had reported himself. How sweet would it be for the Lions to avenge that loss with a victory over the Cowboys in the playoffs and make a run to the NFC Championship game or further? This Lions team has a special energy to it and is capable of pulling off such a run this postseason.
Tier 1: Super Bowl Contenders- Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
We’ve finally made it to the short list of serious Super Bowl contenders, and I will work my way from the least likely to most likely Super Bowl champion out of the four teams listed. The Buffalo Bills started the season out shaky, and it looked like their playoff hopes were in deep trouble when Buffalo lost to the Eagles in overtime and fell to 6-6. Since then, however, the Bills have won five straight. They earned the AFC’s #2 seed through victories over the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins. Buffalo will have up to two home playoff games in the frigid January temperatures of Western New York. Josh Allen is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the NFL, surrounded by talent including James Cook, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis. This offense certainly has the firepower to keep up with the best in the league.
Photo Cred: Sports Illustrated
Defensively, veteran safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer anchor the secondary, while the fierce defensive line led by Ed Oliver puts pressure on opposing offenses. With home-field advantage until the AFC championship game, this might be Buffalo’s best shot to make a Super Bowl run after heartbreaking defeats to the Chiefs and Bengals in previous promising seasons. This year, the script may be flipped, as Mahomes and the Chiefs will have to visit Buffalo for the divisional round if both teams win their Wild Card matchups. Buffalo will be heavy favorites to open the postseason with the Steelers coming to town this Sunday afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys
You may have heard Dallas Cowboys fans say “this is our year” every year, but this year might actually be their year after all! They have a chance to make a deep postseason run and reach the NFC championship game or further for the first time since 1995. The Cowboys looked destined for the NFC’s top wild card spot, eventually taking advantage of the Eagles’ freefall and winning the NFC East. With the NFC’s #2 seed, Dallas will get to host up to two playoff games, and the Cowboys are undefeated at home this year. Dak Prescott has had a great season, with reliable and potent options like star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, running back Tony Pollard, and tight end Jake Ferguson helping out. The Cowboys offense leads the league in points per game.
Photo Cred: The Dallas Morning News
Star linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback Da’Ron Bland highlight a top-five defense both in points and yards per game. Winning in the playoffs has been an obstacle for the Cowboys, as many promising regular seasons have led to disappointment for their fans. They lost twice each to the 49ers and Packers in the past decade alone. The 49ers have already beaten them 42-10 earlier this season, which is important if the two teams meet for the NFC championship game. This still remains the best shot in a long time for “America’s Team” to have the postseason success its fans have long desired.
San Francisco 49ers
Speaking of the San Francisco 49ers, they are widely considered the best team in the NFC, and they have the top-seed and first-round bye to show for it. The Niners’ roster is loaded with talent on both sides of the football, with quarterback Brock Purdy, star running back Christian McCaffrey, receiver Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle having spectacular seasons. On defense, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, Chase Young, and Nick Bosa make up a ferocious defensive line.
Photo Cred: Oregon Live
Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir patrol the secondary at their cornerback spots. The 49ers have notched dominant victories over other NFC contenders, including the aforementioned 42-10 drubbing of the Cowboys as well as defeating the Eagles 42-19 in Philadelphia. The one flaw on their resume was a 33-19 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day, but the Niners should be favored to at least return to the Super Bowl after falling in the NFC Championship game in each of the past two seasons.
Baltimore Ravens
Last but certainly not least, the Baltimore Ravens are my pick to not only make it but to also win the Super Bowl. Superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson has had an MVP-caliber season, with over 3,600 passing yards and 24 passing touchdowns to go with 821 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Baltimore has a robust receiving core, with former Giant Odell Beckham Jr. teaming up with Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor. Tight end Mark Andrews is set to return from injury while running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill dominate on the ground. The Ravens have assembled a fearsome linebacking core with Jadeveon Clowney, Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, and Kyle Van Noy.
Photo Cred: Baltimore Beatdown
Their secondary features cornerback Marlon Humphrey and safety Kyle Hamilton, two of the best in the league. They even have one of the league’s best kickers in Justin Tucker, who amazes audiences weekly both with his accuracy and his range. The Ravens finished with a league-best 13-4 record and dominant victories against fellow playoff teams, including the 33-19 win over NFC favorite San Francisco and a dominant 56-19 win over the playoff-bound Dolphins. The Ravens have few weaknesses and look to build on previous playoff failures to bring home the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy.
