The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament took place this past weekend, narrowing the field down to sixteen teams. While the first weekend featured some exciting games and even a buzzer-beater, college basketball fans were left somewhat disappointed. Compared to previous years, this tournament has lacked major upsets and Cinderella runs by lower-seeded teams advancing to the second week.
In the first round, only five double-digit seeds pulled off victories—a decline from last year’s eight. Two of those wins came from No. 10 seeds defeating No. 7 seeds, which is not considered a significant upset. Additionally, No. 12 Colorado State beat No. 5 Memphis, but betting markets had favored Colorado State, diminishing the underdog narrative. One of the best parts of March Madness is rooting for smaller schools and embracing their underdog stories.
Photo Cred: USA Today
These teams, often without NBA prospects or national recognition, leave lasting memories with their heart and determination on the biggest stage. Sometimes, an entire team captures the spotlight, while in other cases, a single player steals the show. Recent history has provided several memorable Cinderella stories. Last year, DJ Burns and NC State made a thrilling run to the Final Four. In 2022, Doug Edert and Saint Peter’s shocked the world by reaching the Elite Eight.
Sister Jean and Loyola Chicago captivated audiences in 2018 with their Final Four journey, and Florida Gulf Coast, famously known as “Dunk City,” made a magical Sweet 16 run in 2013. The list of legendary Cinderella teams is endless. This year, however, upsets in the first round failed to translate into deeper runs. Of the five double-digit seeds that won in the first round, only one—No. 10 Arkansas—advanced to the second weekend. However, Arkansas, coached by Hall of Famer John Calipari and ranked No. 16 in the preseason, hardly qualifies as a Cinderella team.
Photo Cred: USA Today
While underdog stories are a beloved part of the tournament, they often end in lopsided losses. The absence of Cinderella teams this year may lead to more competitive matchups in the later rounds. While nothing is guaranteed—any team can dominate another on a given night—the Sweet 16 and beyond promise stronger clashes on paper. A major factor affecting the tournament’s landscape is the combination of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals and the transfer portal.
In previous years, players from mid-major programs often transferred to higher-profile schools, but now entire teams are built through transfers. Of the sixteen remaining teams, only one has a starting lineup composed entirely of players who have been with the program for their entire collegiate careers. Every other team features at least one transfer, with some having completely revamped rosters.
While any school can recruit transfers, not all can afford them. This year’s remaining teams illustrate this reality, as they come from the wealthiest athletic conferences. Of the Sweet 16 teams, seven hail from the SEC, four from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12, and one from the ACC. These power conferences, backed by lucrative TV contracts and substantial financial resources, have a clear advantage in assembling top-tier rosters through the transfer market.
Though this is just one tournament, fans can see the direction in which college basketball is headed. Amateurism in collegiate sports, especially football and basketball, is fading, with the game increasingly resembling professional leagues. While this shift may reduce the frequency of Cinderella stories, it could lead to higher-quality matchups in the later rounds of the tournament.
