The College Football Playoff quarterfinals showcased an elevated level of competition, as fans filled bowl sites to witness thrilling matchups. Penn State shut down Ashton Jeanty and displayed offensive firepower to fend off Boise State. Texas held off a late surge from Cam Skattebo and Arizona State, while Ohio State had no trouble with the previously undefeated Oregon. Notre Dame capitalized on defense, special teams, and a dynamic dual-threat quarterback to defeat Georgia.
This sets up an exciting semifinal slate with Penn State facing Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl and Ohio State meeting Texas in the Cotton Bowl. While Ohio State might be the hottest team left in the field, the last SEC team standing is not to be overlooked. Meanwhile, both Penn State and Notre Dame have enjoyed impressive seasons and look to continue their playoff journeys toward the national championship. Both games should be thrilling, and I’m here to offer an analysis of what to expect when each team has the ball and who will emerge victorious when the dust settles.
Orange Bowl: Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Photo Cred: NCAA.com
Both Penn State and Notre Dame have been known for their inability to win the big game, but one of these teams will break that trend and advance to the national championship game. These two teams are mirror images of each other, with strong defenses, solid run games, difference-makers at quarterback, and solid special teams.
When Penn State has the ball, quarterback Drew Allar will look to move the offense downfield, targeting wide receivers Omari Evans and Tre Wallace, along with versatile tight end Tyler Warren. Penn State’s passing attack has improved since its early-season struggles, finding success during the postseason. In their 37-point performance in the Big Ten Championship against Oregon and in their deep shots against Boise State, the Nittany Lions quickly established a 14-0 lead.
However, the ground game remains Penn State’s strength. Running backs Kaytron Allen (134 yards on 17 carries) and Nick Singleton (87 yards on 12 carries) both averaged over seven yards per carry in the win over Boise State. While Boise State’s defense hit Allar several times, they also allowed big plays. Notre Dame’s defense, known for aggressive blitzing and creating turnovers, will look to replicate that style. Linebacker Jack Kiser and safety Xavier Watts have been key playmakers for the Irish, so Penn State must protect the football to avoid crucial turnovers.
When Notre Dame has the ball, their offense revolves around a powerful run game, led by running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, and dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard. Leonard, who nearly matched his passing yards with rushing yards against Georgia, is a constant threat on designed quarterback draws. In the win over Georgia, Leonard even flipped over a defender to secure a first down. Love has been dealing with a knee injury, which could affect his performance, and Penn State’s linebacker Abdul Carter has been one of the nation’s top defenders. Carter, if fully healthy, will be a major factor in limiting Notre Dame’s ground attack. Carter’s presence could frustrate the Irish’s offensive rhythm, especially if Love is less than 100%.
The matchup will also feature a special teams battle. Notre Dame’s defense and special teams carried them to a 20-3 lead over Georgia, with Leonard contributing just 90 passing yards. Given Penn State’s stout defense, particularly its ability to stifle the run, Notre Dame will need to capitalize on special teams, field goals, and turnovers to stay competitive. With Penn State boasting a more explosive offense and a top-ten defense, it’s difficult to rely solely on special teams and turnovers for success.
Penn State’s kicker, Ryan Barker, has made over 80% of his field goal attempts, while Notre Dame’s Mitch Jeter has also been reliable in clutch situations. Despite Marcus Freeman’s brilliance as a coach, I believe the Nittany Lions will prevail. Penn State’s more explosive offense, strong defense, and the probability that Notre Dame’s luck from turnovers and special teams will not continue makes me lean towards a Penn State victory.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Notre Dame 17
Cotton Bowl: Texas vs. Ohio State
Photo Cred: NCAA.com
The expanded playoffs have reinvigorated the once-proud programs of Texas and Ohio State. Both teams have faced postseason struggles, with Ohio State haunted by four consecutive losses to Michigan and no Big Ten Championship titles, while Texas fell to Washington in last year’s CFP semifinals. Ohio State hasn’t won a national title since 2014, and Texas’ last championship came in 2005. But this year, both teams have an opportunity to rewrite history in the Cotton Bowl.
Ohio State may not enjoy a home-field advantage in Dallas, but their fans travel well, and the Buckeyes are the team to beat. After dominating Tennessee and Oregon in back-to-back playoff games, Ohio State has emerged as the hottest team in the field. On the other hand, Texas has shown grit, holding off a tough Clemson team and surviving a late Arizona State rally. However, Ohio State is nearly a touchdown favorite, and if Texas is to pull off the upset, they’ll need to avoid falling behind by double digits, as Tennessee and Oregon did.
On offense, Ohio State is loaded, with freshman standout Jeremiah Smith alongside veteran receivers Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly have fully unleashed their receiving corps, and quarterback Will Howard has looked especially sharp, connecting with Smith for early strikes in both the Tennessee and Oregon games. Running backs TreVeyeon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are a dynamic duo, with Henderson posting back-to-back games with two touchdowns and over 80 yards on the ground.
Texas will need to put pressure on Howard, with linebackers Colin Simmons and Trey Moore leading the charge. Texas also boasts the best secondary in the country, which will play a key role in containing Ohio State’s prolific passing attack. Cornerback Jahdae Barron is expected to match up against Smith, and safeties Andrew Mukuba and Michael Taafe will help shore up the backfield.
On defense, Ohio State’s defensive line has been a nightmare for opposing offenses, and they’ll look to exploit Texas’ offensive line. Defensive stars like Jack Sawyer, Tyliek Williams, and J.T. Tuimoloau will make it difficult for quarterback Quinn Ewers to establish a rhythm. Texas’ wide receivers Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden will face off against Ohio State’s cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock, with the Buckeyes’ star safety duo of Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom providing additional support. Texas’ run game, led by Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, will need to make an impact, with tight end Gunnar Helm offering a reliable outlet for Ewers.
On special teams, both teams have experienced inconsistencies at kicker. Ohio State’s Jayden Fielding missed crucial kicks in losses to Georgia and Michigan, but he rebounded in the playoff with successful attempts. Texas’ Bert Auburn has struggled as well, with a 64% conversion rate on field goals this season. If the game comes down to a field goal kick-off, whichever kicker rises to the occasion will likely play a pivotal role in the outcome.
Despite the challenges Texas presents, I have to give the edge to Ohio State. Since their loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes have been explosive, mixing run and pass to build commanding leads against elite teams. The indoor environment in Dallas should suit their offense well, and their defense has shown the ability to shut down high-powered offenses. Texas has been inconsistent, and while they have the talent to compete, I don’t think they have enough to overcome the Buckeyes in this semifinal.
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Texas 20
