Despite electric home environments at Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas, the first round was mostly disappointing for many college football fans. Each higher seed won by double digits, leading many to reconsider letting teams like Indiana and SMU into the tournament despite their eleven-win seasons on lighter schedules. Even Clemson and Tennessee came up short against the Longhorns and Buckeyes, who bounced back impressively after painful losses in their previous outings. Regardless, the twelve-team playoff is underway, moving to the next stage, where traditional bowl sites will host the quarterfinals. Here’s my preview of each second-round matchup, complete with game picks and what to expect when each team has the ball.
Fiesta Bowl- #6 Penn State vs #3 Boise State
Photo Credit: NCAA.com
After a 38-10 trouncing of SMU in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions face a stiffer test in Boise State on New Year’s Eve. The Broncos are 12-1, with their only loss coming to #1 Oregon by three points in Week 2. The Mountain West champions earned a first-round bye on the back of Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty’s remarkable 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns, even while teams focused on stopping him and Jeanty rested in several second halves. He has a shot at breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record, needing 132 yards against Penn State—something he has achieved numerous times this season. The question for Boise State is how quarterback Maddux Madsen will perform. With Penn State boasting a top-ten rushing defense and an elite defensive line, Madsen will need to deliver through the air. If Boise State can balance its offense and not rely too heavily on Jeanty, it should be able to keep pace with Penn State, making for an intriguing contest.
On the other side, Penn State features two standout tailbacks in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Nittany Lions’ offense revolves around the ground game, but quarterback Drew Allar has improved this season, passing for over 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. Despite lacking a true star receiver, Penn State has leveraged offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s creativity to move the ball through the air and complement its running backs. The Boise State defense ranks second in the nation in sacks but struggles against the pass and can be prone to big plays. With both teams focusing on shutting down the other’s run game, whichever quarterback performs better in the air will give his team the upper hand. Given the Nittany Lions’ defensive playmaking, including two pick-sixes against SMU and an offense that put up 37 points on Oregon, they should have enough to advance.
Prediction: Penn State 34, Boise State 24
Peach Bowl- #5 Texas vs #4 Arizona State
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The New Year kicks off with the Peach Bowl between SEC runners-up Texas and Big 12 champions Arizona State. Texas’ only losses were to Georgia, and the Longhorns pulled away from Clemson to advance. Star quarterback Quinn Ewers has CFP experience, while fan-favorite backup Arch Manning has been used in packages to keep defenses guessing. Running back Jaydon Blue has been a dynamic playmaker, and receivers Isaiah Bond (an Alabama transfer) and Gunnar Helm have been reliable options. Texas also has one of the best offensive lines in the country, which should give Ewers time to throw and pose a challenge for Arizona State’s defense. The Sun Devils average just 1.62 sacks per game, which ranks outside the top 100, and struggle to pressure quarterbacks. Arizona State’s defensive back Xavion Alford will need to step up to prevent Texas from taking control.
When Arizona State is on offense, running back Cam Skattebo will be the focal point for the Texas defense. Skattebo rushed for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns, adding 506 receiving yards and three touchdowns. However, he hasn’t faced a defense like Texas, ranked 12th in rush defense. Arizona State’s previous opponents have averaged 80th in run defense efficiency. Texas has the advantage on both sides of the line, making this a tough matchup for ASU. Without star receiver Jordyn Tyson and with an inexperienced quarterback in Sam Leavitt, the Sun Devils will have a difficult task. While they exceeded expectations by winning the Big 12, their run should end here unless Skattebo can put together a monumental performance.
Prediction: Texas 37, Arizona State 17
Rose Bowl- #8 Ohio State vs #1 Oregon
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The iconic Rose Bowl hosts one of the best matchups of the season, as Ohio State looks to avenge its only regular-season loss—a 32-31 thriller against Oregon in Week 7. Both teams demonstrated their offensive power, with Ohio State failing to get a game-winning field goal attempt when quarterback Will Howard was unable to slide in time. Now, with higher stakes, both teams will have much to prove.
After a tough loss to Michigan, Ohio State showed its potential in a dominant victory over Tennessee, with Jeremiah Smith leading the way with 103 yards and two touchdowns. The Buckeyes’ run game also regained form, with TreVeyeon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins both scoring two touchdowns each. Expect the Buckeyes’ offense to be firing on all cylinders in sunny Pasadena. Oregon’s defense, already susceptible to the run, won’t have the home crowd advantage, which should allow Ohio State to score more than they did in the first meeting.
Ohio State’s defense played a dominant role against Tennessee, but they will face a much more formidable offensive line in Oregon. The Ducks boast a powerful running back duo in Jordan James and Noah Whittington, along with a dynamic downfield threat in wide receiver Tez Johnson. Expect a high-scoring shootout, with both teams trying to outdo each other offensively. However, Ohio State’s defense will make enough plays to secure the win and advance.
Prediction: Ohio State 40, Oregon 34
Sugar Bowl- #7 Notre Dame vs #2 Georgia
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The tripleheader wraps up with a thrilling Sugar Bowl between Notre Dame and Georgia for the final spot in the semifinals. Notre Dame advanced after a 27-17 victory over Indiana, although the game was less competitive than the score suggests. Georgia earned the #2 seed after defeating Texas in the SEC Championship game, and they are fresh off two consecutive national championships in the four-team playoff.
Notre Dame features Duke transfer Riley Leonard, who passed for nearly 2,300 yards and 17 touchdowns while rushing for 751 yards and 15 touchdowns. Running back Jeremiyah Love brings speed to the Irish rushing attack, while Jordan Faison leads the team in receiving. Against Georgia’s stout defense, Notre Dame will need to establish the run game and control the line of scrimmage to be successful.
Georgia will turn to backup quarterback Gunner Stockton due to an injury to Carson Beck. Stockton has a solid supporting cast, including running backs Nate Frazier and Trevor Etienne, as well as wide receivers Arian Smith, Dominic Lovett, and Dillon Bell. Despite missing Beck, the Bulldogs still have a powerful offense, but the Irish defense, led by linebacker Jack Kiser and safety Xavier Watts, will aim to rattle Stockton. If Notre Dame can make enough plays on both sides of the ball, they will have a shot to pull the upset and earn their first-ever victory over Georgia.
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Georgia 20
Semifinal predictions: Ohio State vs Texas in the Cotton Bowl, Notre Dame vs Penn State in the Orange Bowl.
