Since the induction of the College Football Playoff in 2014, no two teams from the same state have been matched against each other, that changes in South Bend. Notre Dame (11-1) will host Indiana (11-1) in the opening round of the CFB Playoff, a historic first on many levels. This marks the first time a team gets a “home” game in the expanded playoff format, but how much of a home game will it really be for Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish when Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are only a short bus ride away from the iconic Touchdown Jesus?
Photo Cred: SI
We’re likely in store for a sea of crimson and gold surrounding the gridiron this weekend. This matchup is expected to be an absolute shootout, with Vegas setting the over/under at 51.5 points. The Hoosiers come into this game with slightly better offensive production, averaging 43.3 points per game (2nd in the nation), while the Irish are right behind them in 3rd at 39.8.
Both teams are nearly even on the defensive side as well, with Indiana giving up 14.6 points per game and Notre Dame surrendering just 13.5. Yet, as of writing this, Vegas has Notre Dame favored by 7.5 points with a -285 moneyline. This raises the question: With such statistical similarities, why isn’t this game expected to be closer? The answer may become clearer when we review the course of the season. When we compare each team’s performance in the one common opponent they shared this season, Purdue, it highlights contrasting offensive approaches.
Photo Cred: IU
Notre Dame amassed 578 total yards of offense, with 216 yards through the air and an astounding 362 on the ground. Quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love each tallied over 100 rushing yards, combining for four touchdowns. Leonard also managed the game well through the air, with 112 passing yards and a 68.7% completion rate. On the other hand, the Hoosiers were more pass-heavy against Purdue, racking up 349 passing yards while still managing 233 yards rushing. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, along with wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, put on a clinic.
Rourke threw for 349 yards, completing 74.1% of his passes and tossing six touchdowns. Sarratt caught eight passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns, including a breathtaking 84-yard score. Both Notre Dame and Indiana will rely heavily on big defensive plays. The Irish secondary, led by Xavier Watts and Benjamin Morrison, will need to lock down any deep-ball opportunities the Hoosiers might attempt.
Watts, the reigning Bronko Nagurski winner with six interceptions this season, is expected to play a key role in limiting big plays, while Notre Dame boasts the third-best pass defense in the nation, allowing only 151.1 passing yards per game. For Indiana, their defensive front is led by the inside/outside duo of Tyrique Tucker and Mikail Kamara. Kamara leads all of FBS in quarterback pressures and contributes to Indiana’s nation-leading run defense, allowing just 70.8 yards per game. Each team’s defensive specialty appears to be a direct counter to the other’s offensive strengths, which begs the question: Why does the spread seem so favorable to one side? This is a historic matchup with all the makings of a new CFB rivalry.
