As we look ahead, it’s likely that this week’s rankings will change significantly by the time Championship Weekend arrives. College football fans have become accustomed to seeing rankings shift throughout the course of the season. Teams may rise or fall based on their performance in critical matchups. So, fans should focus on their team’s performance and not get too caught up in the current rankings. That said, one issue with the current playoff projections is becoming clear to many: the 5-seed may be the most favorable position to be in.
Photo Cred: FOX
While winning a Conference Championship is a significant achievement, the ultimate goal for most programs remains the National Championship. The path to that title may be more favorable for the 5-seed than for some conference champions. To earn a bye in the College Football Playoffs, a team must be one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. A Group of 5 team—such as Boise State could potentially be ranked higher than one of these Power 5 champions. Thus, earning the coveted bye. This format could make the early rounds of the playoffs more exciting. Teams will get the chance to compete in front of their home crowds.
Currently, the 5-seed looks like a strong position for teams aiming to make a run to the College Football Semifinals. The 5-seed will likely be awarded to a team that lost in either the Big Ten or SEC Championship Game. Right now, that’s projected to be Ohio State. The Buckeyes, who lost to No. 1 Oregon earlier this season, have the inside for a home playoff game against the Group of 5 representative. At the moment, Boise State is considered the frontrunner to be that Group of 5 team, but Army is also in contention, especially with a massive game coming up against Notre Dame.
While the Group of 5 team would certainly have its share of talent, the 5-seed would likely be a heavy favorite in that matchup. Assuming the 5-seed wins that first-round game, they would likely face the winner of the ACC or Big 12 Championship Game in the quarterfinals. That would be another highly winnable game for the 5-seed, which would likely come into that matchup as the favorite. This would set up a path where the 5-seed could potentially avoid some of the “blue blood” programs until the semifinals.
Photo Cred: NCAA
Of course, all of this is still speculation, as there are four weeks of football left before the final rankings are released. Anything can happen over the final month of the regular season. Conference Championship games will have a significant impact on the playoff picture. While winning a Conference Championship is undoubtedly a huge advantage, landing the 5-seed or even the 6-seed wouldn’t be the worst-case scenario.
Sure, it means that one additional game would be added to your schedule. In the end, the key for teams in the hunt for the playoffs will be to take care of business. The rankings will undoubtedly shift. Whether a team secures a bye or not, the goal remains the same: win out, make the playoffs, and put themselves in position to compete for the ultimate prize—the National Championship.
