Following the conclusion of the college football season, fans typically enter a brief two-week period where they lay low. After that time passes, they dive right back into discussions about transfers, recruits, and emerging talent for the upcoming year until the first kickoff in Week 0. Now, with the transfer portal closed and recruitment classes solidified, there’s enough information to offer my predictions for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) picture. Stay tuned as we break down the contenders and potential qualifiers.
Photo Cred: College Football Playoff
Since the start of the playoffs in 2015, the format has consisted of a four-team playoff, with all teams selected by the playoff committee. However, the introduction of the 12-team playoff format could not have come at a better time. The past season was marked by drama, notably with undefeated ACC champions, Florida State, missing out on the playoffs. Instead, the top four featured two one-loss teams, Alabama and Texas. With the new structure of the 12-team playoffs, such scenarios are less likely to occur. “More teams and more access mean more excitement for fans, alumni, students and student-athletes,” said Bill Hancock, the Executive Director of the College Football Playoff.
The Structure
The 12-team playoff structure will grant first-round byes and automatic berths to the quarterfinals for four of the six highest-ranked conference champions. The remaining six teams, including two conference champions, will be selected based on their rankings. The first round will take place on Dec. 20-21, 2024, at the higher seed’s home field or a neutral venue of their choice. The quarterfinals and semifinals will be hosted at rotating bowl games each year. In 2024, the bowl games chosen for quarterfinals are the Fiesta, Peach, Rose, and Sugar Bowls, which will be played from Dec. 31 to Jan. 1. The Orange and Cotton Bowls will host the semifinals on Jan. 9 and 10. Lastly, the championship game is scheduled for Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
My 12-team Prediction
I think that the automatic bids for the six conference champions will be selected from the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, AAC, and C-USA. The new Power Four conferences (barring the nearly empty Pac-12/Pac-2) are shoo-ins, while I think the AAC and C-USA have the next two best chances of their conference champions being ranked.
#1: Georgia
I believe Georgia will clinch the #1 seed representing the SEC, backed by a strong championship win. With Nick Saban no longer leading Alabama, Georgia arguably boasts the top coach in college football and an impressive recruitment class bolstering their already formidable team.
#2: Ohio State
Without John Harbaugh at Michigan anymore, as well as transfers and graduates killing teams like Washington and Michigan, this conference is really Ryan Day’s to lose. Under his leadership, this team is primed to dominate the Big 10! While Oregon presents stiff competition with Dan Lanning at the helm, Day’s experience in the conference could provide the Buckeyes with an edge in securing the #2 spot.
#3: Florida State
Mike Norvell and the Seminoles are setting their sights on seeking revenge on the playoff committee next season, with winning the ACC as their primary objective. I think Dabo Swinney and Clemson will stay on the outskirts, as Swinney continues to not pursue or rely on the transfer portal despite its growing importance in team improvement. In the ACC, my top two picks mirror last year’s selections: Florida State and Louisville. Jeff Brohm is doing something special at his alma mater, orchestrating a remarkable turnaround and propelling the Cardinals to the ACC championship game in just his second season. While I anticipate another strong showing from Louisville, I still foresee Florida State emerging as the conference leader.
#4: Utah
Following the departures of Texas and Oklahoma, I think the Big 12 is going through some upheaval. However, the additions of Utah and Arizona will inject some hope for the upcoming season. If the Utes can maintain their health, they will pose a significant challenge within the conference. Additionally, despite losing their head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, I think there’s potential for Arizona to make a strong push. At the same time, you can never count out a perennial contender like Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys from vying for the conference title.
Photo Cred: The Daily Utah Chronicle
#5: Tulane
Tulane enters the season with a promising future following the hiring of Jon Sumrall as head coach. With SMU leaving the AAC for the ACC, opportunities have opened up for the Green Wave. UTSA stands out as the primary threat to Tulane’s ambitions in the conference.
Photo Cred: NEWS10 ABC
#6: Liberty
Within the Conference USA landscape, few teams present a notable threat to Liberty. The Flames have already showcased their ability to compete at the top of the Group of Five rankings. With the potential for another undefeated season on the horizon, Liberty emerges as a formidable force in the conference.
Photo Cred: FBSchedules
The Non-Conference Champion Playoff Teams
The selection process for these teams could spark controversy for the playoff committee next season. I will base my choices on the previous season’s rankings by the playoff committee’s top 25, which may differ from the AP rankings. I think it’s highly likely that the committee will choose at least two additional SEC teams: Texas and Ole Miss. Texas just went to the CFP and is experiencing a stellar offseason so far. Their matchup against Georgia in the regular season could be pivotal and, if they suffer only that one loss, I think they will be a shoo-in. Similarly, with Ole Miss, I think they will also only lose to Georgia during the regular season. An 11-1 record in the SEC should give any team a strong chance of making the playoffs.
I think the remaining four teams are expected to be selected from the other Power Four conferences. I think that the NCAA’s decision to expand the playoffs will aim to enhance engagement, and adding more teams from these conferences aligns with this objective. This is why I will select what I believe to be the second-best teams in their respective conferences for playoff consideration.
Photo Cred: Burnt Orange Nation
I believe Oregon, who’s entering the Big 10 this year, has a good chance to make it in. In the ACC, as mentioned earlier, it will be a close call between Louisville and the Seminoles. The runner-up in this conference race is likely to fill one of the playoff slots. I’m also backing Oklahoma State from the Big 12, primarily due to my confidence in coach Mike Gundy’s leadership. The Cowboys will be my dark horse choice. As for the 12th team, it could be anyone from anywhere, but my pick will be Alabama. Yes, I know, Nick Saban’s absence changes a lot. However, their new coach (Kalen DeBoer) just went to the CFP championship and has strong recruiting abilities. Despite inheriting a team in transition, Alabama’s relatively lighter schedule suggests a realistic shot at a 10-2 record, which should secure their spot in the CFP.
The introduction of the 12-team playoff promises to elevate the excitement of college football, and I am all for it! This expansion addresses the shortcomings highlighted by this year’s four-team playoff debacle, underscoring the necessity for a more inclusive format. As we anticipate the upcoming season, the prospects for college football appear exceedingly bright!
Photo Cred: San Diego Union-Tribune
