Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time for the Sweet Sixteen—and this year’s NCAA Tournament is shaping up for an electrifying second weekend. This year, we’ve witnessed astonishing upsets with 14 seed Oakland ousting Kentucky, 13 seed Yale surprising Auburn, and 11 seed Duquesne besting BYU. Yet, as we narrow down to the final 16, only NC State carries the banner for double-digit seeded teams, a rarity that echoes the pattern since 2000, save for 2007’s anomaly. Remarkably, this tournament has favored the strong, with the top two seeds from each region progressing, a phenomenon only seen five times since seeding began in 1979.
The most recent was in 2019, underscoring a competitive balance or perhaps, a year where the elite truly shine. The Sweet Sixteen boasts compelling matchups, notably a rematch of last year’s final between UCONN and San Diego State, with the Huskies eyeing consecutive titles—a feat last seen with Florida in 2006 and 2007. Additionally, the face-off between Illinois’s offense and Iowa State’s defense, according to KenPom’s efficiency metrics, alongside a high-octane clash between North Carolina and Alabama, promises thrilling basketball.
UCONN’s March Continues
After the Huskies dispatched the Aztecs 76-59 in the final of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, they continued building upon it and put together a resume that includes a 33-3 record, a Big East Championship, and wins over four of the other 15 teams left in the tournament. This is a team that has only lost once since December 20th, and they currently show no signs of slowing down in the month of March, as the Huskies have been on a tear throughout their past eight NCAA tournament games, winning by double digits in all of them. I have a feeling with the firepower and depth of this UCONN squad, the reigning champs are going to take another step towards their dreams of back-to-back championships.
Can Cinderella Keep Dancing? NC State, this tournament’s Cinderella, powered by fan-favorite DJ Burns Jr., has defied expectations, surging from a shaky start to defeating top teams. Yet, facing Marquette, known for its sharpshooting, poses their sternest challenge. Despite NC State’s resilience, Marquette’s efficiency might just be the hurdle too high for this Cinderella story.
This will be the toughest test the Wolfpack have faced since defeating UNC in the ACC title game, as Marquette features one of the sharpest shooting squads in the country, as they are hitting on a little over 48% of their field goals. Both of the Golden Eagles top scorers this season, Kam Jones and Tyler Kolek, have a field goal percentage over 58% since the NCAA Tournament began. Although, the defenses they faced in the first two rounds are nothing to be too impressed by, as neither Western Kentucky nor Colorado had a adjusted defensive efficiency rating higher than 48th in the nation, per KenPom. NC State currently find themselves sitting at 76th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating, and are allowing 44% of their opponents field goals to be made.
Can Zach Edey and Purdue Break Through? Zach Edey, eyeing the NBA draft, seeks to lead Purdue past the Sweet Sixteen, a stage that’s eluded them despite past opportunities. Facing Gonzaga, a consistent contender, revives memories of their early-season encounter which Purdue won. However, this matchup will test both teams, especially Edey against Gonzaga’s Graham Ike. Purdue’s offensive might and Gonzaga’s defensive challenges set the stage for a potential breakthrough for the Boilermakers.
It is an interesting Sweet Sixteen matchup already because of the caliber of the teams, but it is made even more intriguing by the fact that these two teams faced off early in the season at the Allstate Maui Invitational in November. In that meeting, Purdue would get the better of Gonzaga with a 73-63 victory, with Edey recording a double-double, scoring 25 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. Both teams have come along way since then, and both have hit a stride since entering the tournament—with both teams winning by 20+ in each of their matchups thus far. This game is going to come down to the battle between Edey and Gonzaga big man, Graham Ike.
As we delve into these matchups, the anticipation is palpable, promising basketball at its finest. May these predictions stand the test of time, unlike my Auburn Final Four forecast. Here’s to an unforgettable Sweet Sixteen!
