No. 13 Samford Bulldogs vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks, Thursday, 9:55 p.m. ET, TBS
The Bulldogs finished first in the Southern Conference this season with a record of 29-5 and 15-3 in the SoCon. They won their conference tournament to clinch their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2000 and third overall. The Bulldogs have junior forward Achor Achor, who averages 15.8 points per game, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, leading Samford in both points and rebounds. Utah State transfer guard Rylan Jones averages 9.4 points per game and leads the Bulldogs with 4.9 assists per game. Samford ranks 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 116th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
The Jayhawks had one of their worst seasons in conference play under Bill Self, finishing 22-10 and 10-8 in the Big 12 for a 6th place finish. Kansas boasts one of the best starting lineups in the country but has lacked depth throughout the season. Their depth will be tested, with senior guard Kevin McCullar Jr. will miss the entire NCAA tournament with a knee bone bruise. McCullar Jr. leads the Jayhawks with 18.3 points per game, 6.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists. However, senior center Hunter Dickinson will return from a dislocated shoulder that sidelined him for the Big 12 tournament. Kansas will rely on his 18.0 points per game and 10.8 rebounds.
Starting point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. has also been solid for Kansas, averaging 8.3 points per game, shooting 43.0% overall and 37.9% from three, and 6.3 assists per game, which ranks 12th in the nation. Harris Jr. has also been a key defensive player, averaging 1.5 steals per game. However, there is a significant drop-off to the Kansas bench. Guards Nick Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson are usually the first two players off the bench for Kansas and average 4.7 points per game and 4.2 points per game, respectively. In games without McCullar Jr. this season, the Jayhawks experienced scoring droughts, resulting in their only home loss, 76-68 against BYU on Feb. 27, and a 72-52 loss against Cincinnati in the Big 12 tournament.
Kansas ranks 67th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs, under head coach Bucky McMillan, play a fast-paced brand of basketball nicknamed “Bucky Ball,” leading them to an average of 86 points per game, which ranks fifth nationally. They also have four starters shooting above 36% from three-point range, led by Achor, who shoots 44.6%. If the Bulldogs can accelerate the pace against the Jayhawks and capitalize on transition opportunities, they have a real chance at upsetting Kansas and disrupting many brackets.
No. 11 NC State Wolfpack vs. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders, Thursday, 9:40 p.m. ET, CBS
The Wolfpack (22-14 overall, 9-11 ACC) were not poised to make the NCAA tournament as an at-large team and had to win the ACC tournament as the No. 10 seed to secure a spot. Miraculously, they won five games in five days, including victories over the No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils, No. 3 seed Virginia Cavaliers, and No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC championship. Heading into the ACC tournament, the Wolfpack had lost four of their last five regular-season games. They are led by senior guard DJ Horne, averaging 16.9 points per game, shooting 44.2% overall and 41.3% from three, along with 3.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists.
Center DJ Burns Jr., standing 6’9″ and weighing 275 pounds, poses a matchup challenge for opponents in the paint, averaging 12.4 points per game while shooting 51.7% overall, with 4.0 rebounds. NC State ranks 47th in adjusted offensive efficiency but only 91st in adjusted defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 72.7 points per game to opponents, according to KenPom. The Red Raiders had a solid year in the Big 12, finishing 4th with a record of 23-10 and 11-7 in the Big 12. They are led by sophomore guard Pop Isaacs, averaging 15.9 points per game and 3.5 assists, and senior guard Joe Toussaint, averaging 12.1 points per game and 4.3 assists.
Texas Tech boasts significant wins this season, including a 79-50 victory over Kansas at home on Feb. 12 and an 81-67 win against BYU in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals on Mar. 12. The Red Raiders have been effective, on both ends of the court this season, ranking 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Red Raiders have had a superior season and possess better metrics. The Wolfpack’s recent five-game winning streak can’t be overlooked. If NC State can maintain its momentum led by Horne and Burns Jr., they could upset the Red Raiders and become a contender for the Sweet Sixteen.
No. 11 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 6 Clemson Tigers, Friday, 3:10 p.m. ET, truTV
Similar to the Wolfpack, the Lobos would not have made the tournament as an at-large team, so they won the Mountain West tournament, defeating fellow tournament teams Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State in the Mountain West championship to secure their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2014. The Lobos have three guards who can quickly light up the scoreboard. Senior Jaelen House averages 16.1 points per game, shooting 37.7% overall and 33.1% from three, with 3.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.
House dominated the Mountain West tournament, scoring 29 points in the quarterfinals against Boise State, 19 in the semis against CSU, and 28 in the championship against SDSU. Senior Jamal Mashburn Jr. averages 14.4 points per game, shooting 36.8% overall and 33.3% from three-point range. Sophomore Donovan Dent averages 14.3 points per game, shooting 52.3% overall and 37.5% from three, ranking 29th in the nation with 5.6 assists per game. Dent has scored over 20 points in eight games this season. Freshman JT Toppin has also been a solid contributor for the Lobos, averaging 12.5 points per game and 9.0 rebounds.
