March Madness is definitely one of the biggest sports competitions of the year. During the first and second rounds, games take place from early afternoon into the night. With multiple games on every channel, it signifies the beginning of one of the best postseason tournaments in all of sports! One thing that March Madness is known for is the upsets. Millions of college basketball fans fill out brackets predicting who will advance and win the tournament. However, most (if not all) brackets are quickly busted by a few surprise upsets by lower seeds over much higher ones.
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Some popular examples are #16 Fairleigh Dickinson over #1 Purdue (2023), #16 UMBC over #1 Virginia (2018), and #15 St. Peter’s knocking off #2 Kentucky before defeating Murray State and Purdue (2022). The Peacocks advanced all the way to the Elite Eight before falling to championship runners-up North Carolina. This year, while there might be a surprise upset by a 15th or 16th seed, many other games loom large as potential upset picks. Here are some of the top upset picks for the opening round of March Madness.
#9 Northwestern over #8 Florida Atlantic
Starting with an intriguing #8 vs. #9 matchup, this wouldn’t necessarily be the biggest upset, as no. 9 seeds actually have a 78-74 all-time record against the slightly favored 8th seeds. This game jumps out for a few reasons. Florida Atlantic made a Cinderella run to the Final Four as a nine-seed last year but has taken a step back this season. The Owls finished second in their conference and lost to #11 Temple in the American Athletic Conference tournament semifinals. FAU’s highlight of the season was a neutral-court win over #2 Arizona. However, they also lost to unranked teams such as Bryant, FGCU, and Charlotte.
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Meanwhile, Northwestern has been a much more consistent team this season, finishing with a 21-11 record in the tough Big Ten conference. They had a home win over #1 Purdue and came close to defeating the Boilermakers a second time in West Lafayette, falling 105-96 in overtime. A shocking loss to lowly Chicago State was a blemish for the Wildcats, but that game was three months ago and Northwestern has played much more consistent basketball as of late. This game could go either way, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Northwestern knocks off an over-seeded Florida Atlantic Owls team riding the glory of last year’s Final Four run into a season where they haven’t been as successful overall.
#10 Nevada over #7 Dayton
Moving to a #7 vs. #10 matchup, Nevada against Dayton is another intriguing upset possibility. The Mountain West was a very competitive league this season, sending six teams to the tournament. On the other hand, Dayton boasted a 24-7 record but finished third in the Atlantic 10 conference behind Loyola Chicago and Richmond. Those teams ended up in the NIT instead. Furthermore, Dayton fell to Duquesne in the A-10 quarterfinals and failed to defeat an at-large team selected for March Madness. The Flyers fell three times in their last seven games, while Nevada ended up as the #2 seed in the Mountain West by winning seven games in a row before their loss to #7 Colorado State. Nevada looks more likely to bounce back and is currently favored by 1.5 points, indicating a high chance for a first-round upset.
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#10 Drake over #7 Washington State
In another #7 vs. #10 matchup, Drake takes on Washington State in a battle of teams looking to make an unexpected run. WSU won 10 out of 12 games and swept #2 seed Arizona, while Drake won a competitive Missouri Valley Conference tournament. The Bulldogs defeated at-large contender Indiana State in the championship game to earn a March Madness bid. Drake looks to keep the momentum going as 1.5-point underdogs. They have a more recent tournament history, winning a First Four matchup in 2021 and falling to Miami (a team that reached the Final Four) last season. Star guard Tucker DeVries averages nearly 22 points, so the team’s high-flying offense should be good enough to keep up with the efficiency of the Cougars.
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#11 New Mexico over #6 Clemson
Fresh off a Mountain West tournament championship, New Mexico only managed the #11 seed as they battle the Clemson Tigers in the opening round of March Madness. Clemson finished with a 21-11 record and fifth in the ACC en route to a sixth seed valuation after narrowly missing the tournament last year. However, the Lobos defeated the top teams in the conference tournament, including a win over national runners-up San Diego State, to bring some momentum into their first-round game. The Tigers took a hefty loss against Boston College, falling in the ACC tournament’s opening round, so they are currently 2.5-point underdogs in this matchup. With four players in double figures for New Mexico, expect the Lobos to take down the Tigers and help prove why the Mountain West was disrespected by the selection committee.
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#11 NC State over #6 Texas Tech
Next up in a #6 vs. #11 matchup, the #11 NC State Wolfpack battle the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Round of 64. NC State went on a miraculous run in the ACC tournament, winning five games in five days to capture an ACC championship and an automatic bid to the Big Dance. The Wolfpack took down some of the top teams in the conference along the way, upsetting Duke, Virginia, and #1 seed UNC in consecutive days. They rode stellar play from guard DJ Horne and center DJ Burns among several other key players.
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Texas Tech finished fourth in the rugged Big 12 conference behind top tournament teams such as Houston, Iowa State, and Baylor. Pop Issacs and Joe Toussaint are one of the top shooting guard duos in the nation, with some top-notch defense in the backcourt. The Red Raiders are 5.5-point favorites against NC State, however, riding the high of their ACC championship. There is still a chance the Wolfpack continue their magical run and win at least one tournament game before bowing out.
#12 McNeese St. over #5 Gonzaga
In the upset-heavy #5 vs. #12 matchup, McNeese State vs. Gonzaga has a very interesting feel to it. The Cowboys boast a 30-3 record, including a win over Big Ten program Michigan. Meanwhile, Gonzaga made it back to March Madness for the 25th straight season, this time as the West Coast Conference runners-up. The Bulldogs finished second in the conference after splitting the regular season series with St. Mary’s, but they did boast ranked road wins over #3 seed Kentucky and the aforementioned Gaels.
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Gonzaga has more size and tournament experience, though, as they reached the Sweet 16 or further nine years in a row under head coach Mark Few. However, McNeese is a great three-point shooting team, making nearly 39% of their threes. Additionally, they have a plus-6.7 turnover margin, which ranks third in the nation. Both teams play an up-tempo style of basketball with stout defense and exciting offenses. If the Cowboys can shoot well from long distance and win the turnover battle as they usually do, McNeese can be a trendy upset pick. They have an opportunity to pull one of the biggest stunners of the tournament and knock out a perennial powerhouse in Gonzaga.
#12 James Madison over #5 Wisconsin
Another trendy upset pick is James Madison over Wisconsin, and there is a lot to like about this prediction. JMU boasts a 31-3 record, including a season-opening win over tournament-bound Michigan State. They also had a 13-game win streak en route to a Sun Belt championship victory. Wisconsin had a strong start to the season, including a win against in-state rival Marquette, but then had a four-game losing streak that featured losses to two bottom-two teams in the Big Ten, Michigan and Rutgers.
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The Badgers recently regained their early-season form, knocking off #1 Purdue in the Big Ten tournament before falling to Illinois in the Big Ten title game. Still, it is hard for viewers to tell which Wisconsin team will show up for March Madness, while the Dukes have been more consistent all season long. They even have a win over a Big Ten team currently in the dance! As one of the top upset picks of the tournament, look out for James Madison to knock off Wisconsin and likely battle with the Duke Blue Devils in the second round.
#13 Samford over #4 Kansas
We conclude with what would be the biggest upset out of all of these games! National powerhouse Kansas battles Samford in a #4 vs. #13 matchup to open their tournaments. The Kansas Jayhawks will be without star guard Kevin McCullar Jr., who is battling a nagging knee injury, while star center Hunter Dickinson is also questionable for this matchup. It will be up to the guard duo of Nicolas Timberlake and Elmarko Jackson to step up in his place.
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Meanwhile, the Samford Bulldogs are coming off a 29-5 record and a Southern Conference championship. The Bulldogs have a top offense and have elite three-point shooters at every position. They score efficiently inside the arc and have excellent depth. Although Samford lost handily in an away game against #1 Purdue, the Jayhawks not having McCullar and possibly Dickinson should bode well for their upset chances. If there’s any year for the undersized Samford to knock off one of the nation’s best teams and make a March Madness run, it’s this one!
