After a tumultuous regular season of college hoops, March Madness is finally upon us—time to savor the moment. From now until the National Championship on April 8, it’s the era for legends to emerge, stories to unfold, and hopefully, a few monumental upsets along the way. This is what the NCAA Tournament is all about—chaos and the unforeseen. Each year, we witness a new Cinderella story, whether it’s a stunning upset in the first round like last year’s 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson taking down top-seeded Purdue, or the magical Final Four run of UCLA in 2021, starting as an 11 seed and from the first four play-in games.
It’s these moments that make the sport and the tournament so captivating—the chance for underdogs to topple giants. Last year’s tournament showcased the FDU upset and an Elite Eight devoid of any top-seeded teams. The highest-seeded team in the Final Four, UConn, emerged as a 4th seed from the West region. While last year set a high bar, this postseason promises excitement and unpredictability, stemming from a topsy-turvy regular season where over 50 schools found themselves ranked in the AP Top 25 poll. As mentioned earlier, in March Madness, expect the unexpected. Here are a few potential upsets in the first round to keep a close eye on:
Samford over Kansas
Photo Cred: Sporting News
This upset pick has gained popularity due to recent news of an injury to Kansas star Kevin McCullar Jr. The leading scorer for the Jayhawks has missed six of their last 12 games due to a nagging knee bone bruise. McCullar Jr. earned first-team All-Big 12 honors for his stellar season, and now, Kansas must find a way to fill his void. This challenge is compounded by the Jayhawks’ struggles in generating points off the bench. Enter the 13th-seeded Samford Bulldogs, a team ranked in the top 10 for turnovers forced, playing a fast-paced style that could leave Jayhawks defenders trailing.
With a tempo akin to that of Kentucky and Alabama, Samford aims to dictate the game’s speed and potentially push Kansas into a high-scoring affair. The Bulldogs boast a top-10 scoring offense, averaging 86 points per game and shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Had McCullar Jr. been in play, the outcome might differ, as Kansas boasts a top-15 defense in field-goal percentage allowed. However, without McCullar Jr.’s scoring prowess to match Samford’s rapid offense, an early exit for the Jayhawks seems likely this March.
McNeese State over Gonzaga
Welcome back to the big dance, Will Wade! The former LSU coach has redeemed himself in the eyes of college basketball fans after his dismissal in early 2022 due to recruiting violations. In today’s world of Name, Image, Likeness (NIL), coaches have more flexibility in financially incentivizing players to join their programs—an arena where Wade excels. Wade has transformed a McNeese State team that went 11-23 the previous year into a dominant force, clinching the Southland conference championship with a remarkable 30-3 record.
A key addition to this turnaround was senior transfer Shahada Wells from TCU, leading the Cowboys in scoring with 17.8 points per game on over 47% shooting. Wells also shines defensively, averaging three steals per game. Defensively, McNeese State poses a significant threat, ranking in the top 3 nationally for turnover margin, trailing only Houston and Iowa State.
Similar to Samford, the Cowboys excel at forcing turnovers, averaging over 16 per game. However, they play at a slower pace. While Gonzaga boasts a potent offense, ranking top 10 in the nation for points per game (83.6) and top 3 in offensive rating (120.2), McNeese State’s style might disrupt Gonzaga’s rhythm. This matchup could swing either way, but I’m leaning toward the Cowboys and their exceptional turnover margin for a first-round victory.
New Mexico over Clemson
Photo Cred: Sporting News
Is it truly an upset if the lower-seeded team is favored by 2.5 points over the higher seed? I believe so—just look at the seeds! Clemson started strong with an 11-1 record but faltered to a .500 finish, ending the season with 10 wins and 10 losses. Conversely, New Mexico closed the year on a high note, winning four straight games, including victories against three NCAA tournament teams, and clinching the Mountain West title. The dynamic guard duo of Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House poses a formidable challenge for a Clemson defense ranking near the bottom half of Division 1 with a defensive rating of 104.9.
New Mexico forces over 14 turnovers per game and boasts a top-10 turnover margin of 4.2. I see potential for New Mexico to make a Sweet Sixteen run, especially if they face an average defense like Baylor in the second round. While these are my top three upset picks, a few others bear mention: Oregon over South Carolina, Drake over Washington State, James Madison over Wisconsin, and Charleston over Alabama. Each of these matchups holds upset potential, particularly with their aggressive defenses capable of turning turnovers into points.
Now, let the madness begin.
