Sunday, we will have the 68 teams ready to compete in March Madness. Some spots in the big dance may already seem locked, the conference tournaments present a golden opportunity for bubble teams to notch significant wins and bolster their resumes. They can also be a double-edged sword, potentially dashing hopes of teams on the cusp as unexpected contenders may rise and secure a bid through a conference tournament title.
A recent example of this upset potential unfolded as Drake triumphed over Indiana State to seize the Missouri Valley Conference title. Before this game, many bracketologists, such as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, had Indiana State pegged for the NCAA tournament, while Drake was on the wrong side of the bubble. We may be looking at two MVC teams entering the big dance, altering the landscape for bubble teams like St. John’s, Colorado, and Virginia, who’s at-large bids could be in jeopardy.
With dwindling opportunities for bubble teams to make their case to the selection committee, the conference tournaments become crucial for punching a ticket to March Madness. Currently, 11 teams have clinched their spots in the NCAA tournament by winning their conference championships, leaving 21 more champions to be crowned before Selection Sunday commences at 6 p.m. ET.
That said, let’s delve into the major six conferences and their tournaments, and predict who might emerge victorious. While college basketball boasts more than these main conferences—ACC, Big 12, SEC, Big East, Pac-12, and Big 10—notably, we haven’t seen a team outside these six conferences claim the championship in over three decades. The last non-big six conference champion was UNLV in 1990 when they were part of the Big West. Since then, every NCAA champion has hailed from one of these major conferences, suggesting this trend might continue. With this in mind, let’s explore the tournaments.
ACC
The ACC tournament kicked off yesterday, and in the initial three games, we didn’t witness any upsets. I anticipate this trend to persist for most of the tournament. There’s a chance for Clemson to secure an upset win over Virginia in the Quarterfinals, provided they navigate past Boston College in the second round as expected. However, all signs point to a third showdown between top-seeded UNC and their arch-rivals, Duke. In this trilogy, it might be time for the Blue Devils to retaliate against their in-state rivals. It’s a tough feat to beat a team twice, let alone thrice, but I believe Duke Head Coach Jon Scheyer could have a solid game plan to help his team clinch their 24th ACC title.
Big 12
Following the ACC, the Big 12, arguably the deepest conference in the nation, has already begun its tournament. The Big 12 seeks to secure at least eight, possibly nine spots. They boast top teams like Houston, Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas. In a second-round matchup, we’ll witness two teams near the bubble—TCU and Oklahoma—duking it out. Both teams currently hold spots in the NCAA tournament, but a win for one over the other could solidify their position while spelling doom for the other. I foresee Baylor emerging victorious. With a three-point shooting percentage hovering just under 40%, combined with the size of their starting five, Baylor stands as a strong candidate for the national championship.
SEC
Similar to the Big 12, the SEC boasts teams with strong tournament resumes. Teams like Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, and Kentucky all have legitimate reasons to believe they could win the NCAA tournament this year, and the same holds for their conference tournament. Apart from these four contenders, I envision Florida making waves in the tournament, especially after facing one of the lower-ranked SEC teams in the second round. If they overcome this challenge, they will face Alabama, a team they defeated by 18 points just over a week ago. I don’t foresee Florida or any other team in this tournament slowing down the offensive of Kentucky. Riding on a five-game winning streak, including victories over Tennessee and Alabama, I believe we’ll witness Coach Calipari collect his seventh SEC tournament title.
Big East
Initially, I sought to avoid the easy pick of UConn and focus on other contenders like Creighton, Marquette, or even bubble teams such as Villanova and Seton Hall. With deeper inspection of the bracket, I realize I must acknowledge the inevitable. The defending national champions have shown even more prowess this year, and winning a Big East title would likely serve as sweet revenge for their early exit in last year’s tournament.
Pac-12
Here we are at the end of an era for the Pac-12. This conference, known as the Pac-10 or Pac-12, has been a constant presence, a proud bastion of West Coast college athletics. It feels surreal that the conference of champions will undergo a significant change. The final tournament and the season lacked the intrigue of other conferences. Similar to the Big East, one team towers above the rest—Arizona. While Washington State upset Arizona twice during the regular season, I don’t anticipate seeing them in the final, especially after losing two of their last four regular-season games.
Big 10
Lastly, we come to the Big 10, where I fear I may sound like a broken record as I pick another top-seeded team for the third consecutive conference. I’m betting on Purdue and the likely back-to-back Wooden Award winner, Zach Edey. Pairing one of the best big men seen in years with a team that shoots over 40% from beyond the arc appears to be a winning combination. While a potential quarterfinal matchup with Michigan State could prove challenging, I trust in the experience and talent of the Boilermakers to navigate through anything thrown at them during this championship week.
